Terms of Service
Last Updated: March 2026
1Introduction & Acceptance
By accessing or using PredictionArenas ("the Platform"), you agree to be bound by these Terms of Service ("Terms"). If you do not agree to these Terms, you may not use the Platform.
PredictionArenas is a skill-based continuous trading prediction exchange. Players compete to demonstrate superior forecasting ability by accurately predicting the probability of specific outcomes using our Hybrid AMM (Automated Market Maker) engine.
2Definitions
3Nature of Service
Skill-Based Competition in a 2-Phase Market
PredictionArenas is a skill-based competition platform built on a dual-phase hybrid engine. Market events are split into two distinct operational phases:
- Phase 1 (Continuous Trading): From market open until the event concludes, players buy, sell, and swap positions dynamically. Pricing is managed by our LMSR engine with free entry and a 0% position swap transfer fee, while a 4% exit fee applies on selling.
- Phase 2 (Winner-Takes-All Settlement): Once the event concludes, the market permanently freezes. A 3% Protocol Settlement Fee is extracted from the global pool relative to total volume. The remaining Net Pool is distributed entirely to the analysts holding units in the single correct winning Outcome Bucket.
4Analyst Status & Relationship
By using this Platform, you acknowledge that you are acting as an Independent Playerparticipating in a skill game. You are not an employee or contractor of PredictionArenas. You are participating for entertainment and the opportunity to win prizes based on your analytical skill.
Your relationship with PredictionArenas is that of an independent contractor. You are responsible for your own tax obligations and compliance with local laws in your jurisdiction.
5Fees & Payouts
Free Starter Credits
Upon registration, each new Analyst receives 100 BTS free credits. These credits are automatically credited and have no expiry. Free credits cannot be withdrawn as cash.
Phase 1: Trading Fees
To encourage maximum liquidity and dynamic positioning, we offer fee-free entry and position swapping during Phase 1.
• Buying: You acquire units at exactly the AMM Spot Price with no additional entry fee.
• Selling: You can exit your position at any time during Phase 1 for exactly the AMM Spot Price, subject to a 4% exit fee.
• Swapping: You can instantly transfer capital from one Outcome Bucket to another within the same market with a 0% position swap transfer fee.
Phase 2: Protocol Settlement Fee & Distribution
Upon market resolution, but before payouts are distributed, the Protocol deducts a flat 3% Terminal Fee from the gross pool balance.
After the fee is extracted, 100% of the remaining Net Pool is distributed strictly pro-rata to users holding units in the correct winning bucket. If no users hold units in the winning bucket, the pool is refunded entirely.
All "Potential Payout" estimates displayed on the UI automatically pre-deduct this 3% fee to accurately calculate Expected Value.
6Prohibited Conduct
You agree NOT to:
- Create multiple accounts (Sybil attacks)
- Use automated systems to submit trades without authorization
- Collude with other Analysts to manipulate liquidity
- Attempt to reverse-engineer or overload the AMM algorithms
- Submit trades based on non-public information obtained through illegal means
- Use the Platform from jurisdictions where such use is prohibited
Violation of these terms may result in immediate account termination, forfeiture of assets, and a permanent ban from the Platform.
7Game Rules & Mechanics
Gameplay Rules
- Unlimited Action: You may buy, sell, or swap your units as often as you like while a Market is in Phase 1 (Live).
- Late Entry: You may enter an Arena seamlessly up until the exact micro-second the event concludes. The market prices will adjust dynamically via LMSR mechanics based on density.
- Slippage & Arbitrage: Due to real-time market action, prices may slip slightly between the time you view the interface and your execution. High frequency arbitrage behavior helps keep market bounds tight.
Cancellations & Postponements
If a match/event is officially cancelled or postponed indefinitely, all active Phase 1 trading is reverted, and all positions are returned to traders at cost.
8Tournaments & Arenas
PredictionArenas offers organized, time-bound competitions ("Arenas") where players pay a fixed USD entry fee to compete for a Guaranteed Prize Pool.
Arena Mechanics
- Tournament Bankroll: Upon paying the entry fee, players receive a strictly segregated, tournament-only starting balance (e.g., 10,000 BTS). This balance cannot be withdrawn and can only be used to trade on markets pre-approved for that specific Arena.
- Rankings: Players are ranked dynamically on the Arena Leaderboard based on their Total Portfolio Value (Uninvested Tournament Cash + Active Trading Positions valued at cost).
- Duration: Phase 1 trading remains open until the specific events underlying the Arena's markets conclude.
Prize Distribution & Tie-Breakers
When the tournament concludes, the Guaranteed USD Prize Pool is automatically distributed to the top-ranked analysts based on the pre-defined payout structure (e.g., 1st: 50%, 2nd: 30%, 3rd: 20%).
Split Stakes Logic: In the event of a tie in Total Portfolio Value at the conclusion of the Arena, the platform employs a standard split-stakes algorithm. Tied players will combine the payout percentages of the ranks they occupy, and that sum will be divided equally among them. For example, if two players tie for 1st place in a standard payout structure, they will combine the 1st (50%) and 2nd (30%) place prizes, and each receive 40% of the total prize pool.
Active Tournament Formats & Rules
1. Premier League Weekend Arena
A multi-day tournament focusing on ongoing English Premier League matches. Players trade on live match outcomes (Home/Draw/Away) and Both Teams To Score (BTTS) markets throughout the weekend round. The Arena concludes after the final match is settled, and players are ranked by their final portfolio value, requiring strategic capital allocation across multiple concurrent fixtures.
2. Daily BTC Sprint
A 24-hour tournament centered around a single daily Bitcoin market. Players predict whether BTC will close above (UP), below (DOWN), or between (FLAT) specific volatility boundaries calculated at the start of the day. The Arena operates from Midnight to Midnight NY Time, rewarding analysts who can accurately forecast macro daily crypto trends.
3. Day Trader's Arena: BTC 5m Rolling
Our most intense format. A 24-hour marathon where players trade on 288 consecutive 5-minute rolling Bitcoin markets. A new tight-spread market is generated every 5 minutes continuously for the duration of the tournament. This Arena is designed for high-frequency traders and active market participants, demanding constant attention and rapid execution.
ATechnical Appendix: Mathematics & Mechanics
System Constants & Formulas
Standard Market Maker Cost Formula (LMSR)
C(q) = b × ln(Σ exp(q / b))
// Phase 2 Settlement Payout (Winner Takes All)
Payout_Unit = (Gross_Pool × 0.97) / Winning_Units
Market Updates & Data Slippage
Live Market Warning: All Arena data (including Spot Price and Estimated Payouts) updates in real-time.
Due to network latency or rapid market activity, the values displayed on your screen may differ slightly from the system state at the moment your forecast is processed ("Slippage"). Your transaction will always be processed based on the confirmed system state at the exact micro-second of execution on the backend ledger.
Contact
For questions about these Terms, please contact us at legal@predictionarenas.com